People are still pouring into Collin County. I meet them every single day. Celina was called the fastest growing city in the entire country by The Real Deal just back in June. But while thousands of moving trucks roll in monthly, you're not hearing about the ones rolling out.

I get those calls all the time. Buyers who purchased in 2022 are calling me to list their home just a few years later. When I ask why they're leaving, it's never the weather, the food, or the people. It's about the home they purchased and a completely different picture than what they expected. I moved my family here and went through the same learning curve: the tax bill surprised me, the commute surprised me, the pace of construction surprised me. None of that made me want to leave, but I'm not surprised when others do.

After working with buyers and sellers in McKinney, Frisco, Prosper, Celina, Plano, Melissa, and Anna, the same five questions continuously come up. The one that costs people the most money comes first. In this article, I'm going over the five main reasons people are leaving North Texas, what buyers really need to know about this market right now, and what sellers need to hear before they decide to list their home.

Table of Contents

• Property Taxes: The Number That Shocks Out-of-State Buyers
• School Closures and Boundary Changes Across Collin County
• McKinney: Established Neighborhoods with Mature Trees
• Frisco: Fast Sales at $600K, Slow Absorption Above $1.2M
• Prosper: Strong Absorption in the $700K, $900K Band
• Celina: The Fastest Growing City with the Longest Commute
• Plano: Completely Built Out and Pricing Buyers Farther North
• Melissa: New Construction Communities for Priced-Out Buyers
• Anna: The Next Stop on the Treadmill
• Living in a Construction Zone for Four or More Years
• The Treadmill Effect: Trading Commute Time for a Lower Price
• Which North Texas City Is Right for You?
• What Buyers Need to Know Right Now
• What Sellers Need to Know Right Now
• Conclusion

Property Taxes: The Number That Shocks Out-of-State Buyers

This is the single biggest reason people are leaving North Texas right now, and most of these buyers are coming from out of state. The combined effective tax rate in Collin County runs between 1.7% and 2.3%. Median bills land between $5,000 and $9,000 a year on higher value homes. This information is coming from TaxDrop, who also calls out Plano, Frisco, and McKinney for year-over-year increases. However, Ownwell puts the effective Collin County rate at just 1.3%. Those two numbers use completely different figures, so use that as a range and not a hard number.

Either way, the taxes here are higher, well above the national average at just 1.02%. For comparison, Prosper's effective tax rate is $1.87 per $100 of assessed value. That works out to be roughly 1.44% according to Inside Prosper. The tax rate generally depends on the city you end up in, but there's more to it.

This is where people get it completely wrong here in Texas. They hear no state income tax. It's just a completely different tax state. You're paying for it on the house and not your paycheck. But trust me, it gets completely worse when you don't check the specific address you're planning on purchasing.

Some newer neighborhoods, especially those that come here for the new construction boom, sit inside a MUD or PID tax district, and that alone sits on top of your regular tax rate. Think about this: two homes on the same exact street across the street from each other can be in completely different tax zones. Before you fall in love with any address, that sparkly brand new constructed home, make sure you check the actual effective tax rate for that property. Don't trust the city's average and the lender's estimate, because if the taxes are a surprise, you're going to feel that every single month for as long as you own that property.

School Closures and Boundary Changes Across Collin County

A lot of buyers moving here pick their street based on the school district. This is just what buyers tell me on day one of their home search, so this one definitely catches them completely off guard.

McKinney ISD plans on closing three elementary schools at the start of the 2026-2027 school year. Over in Frisco, Frisco ISD has accumulated 62,000 students as of October 2025. That was roughly 2,800 fewer students than it had the year before. When there are fewer students, they end up closing schools, and that's what they did in Frisco. They closed Staley Middle School, and Odyssey reported that aging infrastructure had a lot to do with that decision as well.

Go back and hear that again. Two areas where most people move to from out of state because of the school districts are closing schools right now. So really, what's driving it? A state demographer quoted, "We are seeing migration outside of the core urban areas into the suburbs." Families are pushing out of these areas and going to more of the rural areas that are more affordable. The older suburbs mature, kids start growing up, and the enrollment lowers in the middle of it all.

The practical impact is what matters to you the most though. Campus closures mean boundary changes. That means the home that you purchase on that street that you wanted because of the school means that your kid is going to be going to a completely different school than you intended on them going to. I see this continuously with relocation buyers who pick their home off of Zillow 1,500 miles away. They get here and they get completely zoned out.

My piece of advice for you, whether we work together or not, is call that district directly. Ask about the boundary plans for that specific address or neighborhood before you write an offer on it. It only takes ten minutes of your time.

McKinney: Established Neighborhoods with Mature Trees

Zillow has the average McKinney home value at just $480,000 as of July, down 6% year over year. Correctly priced homes sell within 38 days. McKinney has established neighborhoods with mature trees, and that's a big advantage over new construction right now.

But here's the reality for someone that purchased their home at the top of the market in 2022. Life happens. That person gets a job offer, has a baby and needs additional space, or decides North Texas just isn't for them. They go to sell that home and they don't get anywhere near the price what they bought it for. Add closing costs on top of it, and they end up writing a check just to walk away from that property. That's when leaving stops being a choice and becomes an expense.

That's the misconception I fight the most here in North Texas. People still think North Texas is a one-directional market like it was in 2021. It just isn't. It's a normal market. I run the actual monthly numbers for buyers on a daily basis. The price is only part of the picture. What really matters is if you need to sell that home by year three. If you're planning on being here for five or more years, that should not scare you off. If you're really not sure though, that changes the conversation entirely.

A well-priced home in an established neighborhood like McKinney typically does well. If you show up with a lowball offer in one of these established communities, there's a good chance you're gonna miss out on that property to another offer. McKinney homes are going pending in roughly 33 days as of July, even with the values being down 6% year over year.

Frisco: Fast Sales at $600K, Slow Absorption Above $1.2M

Frisco's current inventory sits at 580 homes with over 100 days on market, 11% relist rate. That means you signed a contract with the realtor with the understanding and the impression that you're going to sell that home. Then you don't sell it and have to try and sell that home again. Thirty-one percent of the Frisco listings have had a price reduction. That's almost one in every three homes having reductions right now.

But here's what people miss. There is no such thing as a single Frisco market. There are several different markets stacked on top of each other. That's the price band. Homes in Frisco priced around $600,000 sell the fastest in little to under 40 days. Meanwhile, homes in Frisco priced between $1.2 and $1.8 million sit over 100 days with little absorption. Same city, same month, two completely different experiences.

Frisco ISD has 62,000 students as of October 2025, down 2,800 from the year before. They closed Staley Middle School due to declining enrollment and aging infrastructure. Frisco is completely built out. There's no more room for expansion. Buyers priced out of Frisco move to McKinney or farther out.

What This Means for Buyers

When you're talking to a family friend or someone that you've talked to about moving to North Texas and they say that North Texas is a slow market, ask them what price point though. In the busy bands you are still competing for that home. At the higher price bands, you have all the negotiation power in the world. Know which band you're shopping in before you write your first offer, because that's going to change everything when you decide what you're going to negotiate for.

Prosper: Strong Absorption in the $700K, $900K Band

Prosper's at $790,000 average, down 6% year over year. But Prosper homes are going pending in just 18 days. In the recent June market, Prosper homes priced between $700,000 and $900,000 made up 25 of the 63 recent sales in that month. That's roughly 40% of everything that closed in that month with an overall median of 40 days on the market.

Prosper's effective tax rate is $1.87 per $100 of assessed value. That works out to be roughly 1.44%. A well-priced home in an established neighborhood like Prosper typically does well. If you show up with a lowball offer in one of these established communities, there's a good chance you're gonna miss out on that property to another offer.

Celina: The Fastest Growing City with the Longest Commute

Celina was called the fastest growing city in the United States by The Real Deal back in June. Think about it: small town Celina, all that farmland, is now the fastest growing city in the United States, taking all the absorption from Plano and Frisco buyers. The reason for that is they simply can't take any more people. Those two areas are completely built out.

Celina's median sales price at $478,000 as of February is down 15% from the year before, and days on market stretched to 140 days compared to 95 days. The Real Deal reported in June that Celina home sales jumped 61% from April 2025 to April 2026. Here's the crazy stat: homes sold for 22% less than they did before at $520,000. More homes coming out of that ground at lower prices right next to the home that you purchased.

Buyers are trading that 20 to 30 minute commute time for $60,000 off the price tag. On paper it looks like a great deal. You move into that new home in Celina, then you're trying to commute on a Monday morning at 7:30 AM stuck in hour-long traffic to areas like Plano, Richardson, or even Dallas. It gets backed up here because the infrastructure is not there yet. You traded for that home for a $60,000 price tag cut, but you have to sit in that every single day until you decide to sell.

Selling that home is going to be difficult. I've gotten those calls from people that have moved here. They trade the Plano, the Frisco, the McKinney experience to get that opportunity up in Celina, but I end up getting that call two years later trying to sell that home. That's a tough conversation to have with that seller.

The Most Negotiable Market in Collin County

I talk to relocation buyers daily and they always ask me, Connor, where can I negotiate the most right now in Collin County? It's simple. It's new construction in Celina. Builders right now are selling volume at much lower prices. Builders right now have inventory. They're willing to negotiate that inventory because the builder has holding costs. If that property continuously sits month to month, the builder has to pay for those costs monthly. So they're willing to take that property and negotiate everything.

If you go into that sales office, just know there is more you can negotiate than just the price, but there's also incentives involved as well. I'm not only going to ask for the price, I'm going to ask for what incentives they're offering. Based on the incentives they're offering, we're going to have a game plan put together on trying to get more, whether that's rate buydown incentives or closing cost incentives as well.

I go to these sales offices daily in areas like Celina, Prosper, Melissa, McKinney, Anna, and I'll tell you, those incentives on a finished product are much better than the incentives on the dirt alone. Builders are more motivated on that spec home because they're willing to wait on that dirt because they're just going to build a spec home on that property anyways.

My advice to you is free and simple. Come out here and do the drive. Spend a week here and do the drive on a Tuesday morning from the area you want to live in to the area you think you're going to have to commute to. Don't do it on a Saturday or Sunday. Do it during rush hour. Figure out if that location is the right spot for you and if you're willing to commute daily from that area, because that one drive that you do on a Monday afternoon will tell you more than any other research that you do.

Plano: Completely Built Out and Pricing Buyers Farther North

Plano is completely built out. There's no more room for expansion. Somebody goes to look at a home in Plano, but they're priced out. So where do they go? They go to Frisco. Frisco's gotten too expensive, so where do they go? They go to McKinney. McKinney has gotten expensive, so where do they go? They end up going to Celina.

Plano is the commute destination for Celina residents. That hour-long commute during rush hour to Plano, Richardson, or Dallas is what buyers are trading for that $60,000 price cut. Buyers priced out of Plano move to Frisco, then McKinney, then Celina, then farther out to areas like Anna, Van Alstyne, and even Sherman.

Melissa: New Construction Communities for Priced-Out Buyers

Melissa is one of the areas absorbing buyers as they get priced out of the closer suburbs. I go to these sales offices daily in areas like Celina, Prosper, Melissa, McKinney, and Anna. Melissa has new construction communities that are part of the treadmill effect pushing buyers farther and farther out.

Anna: The Next Stop on the Treadmill

Celina is not cheap anymore, by all means. When they're in Celina, they start realizing the taxes are a bit higher. So you start going farther, farther away into areas like Anna, Van Alstyne, and even Sherman. That's the treadmill effect here in North Texas. Everyone wants the next affordable suburb that's potentially going to pop. But what that means, those affordable suburbs are farther and farther away.

Anna is one of the farther out options as buyers get priced out of closer suburbs. That same state demographer that I mentioned earlier simply put that Celina is one of the main reasons we're seeing a lot of these school enrollments drop. Families just keep moving farther and farther out of these main suburbs for those affordable options.

Living in a Construction Zone for Four or More Years

You buy that beautiful, sparkly, brand new home here and you end up being in a construction zone for four or more years. Consider this: construction trucks in the community at 6:30 in the morning, nails in your tires from the amount of construction going on, dirt covering your car, an amenity center that's had a coming soon sign on it for two years. And the worst part, the model home advertising homes that you purchased just a year before, thousands of dollars less than what you actually purchased it for. That last one is the absolute killer.

Collin County inventory has spiked over 62% above its long-term average to 4,300 listings. Active listings sat over 12,000, up 8% year by year, with a countywide median of 40 days on the market. More homes coming out of that ground at lower prices right next to the home that you purchased.

I'm in these new construction communities daily, sitting down with the builder and the sales rep running the actual math on these homes. I'll be completely honest, the builder is not going to hold prices to save your equity. The builder is going to sell their inventory because they need to sell those homes in order to build more.

I'm not trying to scare you though, and that's not the reason to not buy new construction. You just need to buy new construction with your eyes wide open. You need to ask those sales reps or your realtor what phase they're currently in, because if you buy in phase one, and they plan on having five, six phases, you are going to need to plan on being in that neighborhood for at least five years.

The Treadmill Effect: Trading Commute Time for a Lower Price

The exact thing that brings people here to North Texas is the same thing that actually pushes them away. Somebody goes to look at a home in Plano, but they're priced out. So where do they go? They go to Frisco. Frisco's gotten too expensive, so where do they go? They go to McKinney. McKinney has gotten expensive, so where do they go? They end up going to Celina. And Celina is not cheap anymore, by all means. And when they're in Celina, they start realizing the taxes are a bit higher. So you start going farther, farther away into areas like Anna, Van Alstyne, and even Sherman.

That's the treadmill effect here in North Texas. Everyone wants the next affordable suburb that's potentially going to pop. But what that means, those affordable suburbs are farther and farther away. Celina is one of the main reasons we're seeing a lot of these school enrollments drop. Families just keep moving farther and farther out of these main suburbs for those affordable options.

This is where I think people get it wrong though. They're trading that 20 to 30 minute commute time for $60,000 off the price tag. Don't get me wrong, on paper it looks like a great deal. You move into that new home in Celina, then you're trying to commute on a Monday morning at 7:30 AM stuck in hour-long traffic to areas like Plano, Richardson, or even Dallas. It gets backed up here because the infrastructure is not there yet. But you traded for that home for a $60,000 price tag cut, but you have to sit in that every single day until you decide to sell.

Which North Texas City Is Right for You?

Stop shopping by city and start shopping by price band. There is no such thing as a single Frisco market. There are several different markets stacked on top of each other. Homes in Frisco priced around $600,000 sell the fastest in little to under 40 days. Meanwhile, homes in Frisco priced between $1.2 and $1.8 million sit over 100 days with little absorption. Same city, same month, two completely different experiences.

Prosper works in the same way as well. In the recent June market, Prosper homes priced between $700,000 and $900,000 made up 25 of the 63 recent sales in that month. That's roughly 40% of everything that closed in that month with an overall median of 40 days on the market.

Here's what to consider:

• Choose McKinney if you want established neighborhoods with mature trees and you're planning to stay five or more years. Homes go pending in 38 days when priced correctly. Values are down 6% year over year, but correctly priced homes in established neighborhoods compete well against new construction.
• Choose Frisco if you're shopping in the $600,000 range and want fast absorption. Avoid the $1.2, $1.8M band unless you have time to wait. Frisco is completely built out with no more room for expansion.
• Choose Prosper if you're in the $700,000, $900,000 band and want strong absorption. Homes go pending in 18 days. Effective tax rate is roughly 1.44%.
• Choose Celina if you're looking for the most negotiable market in Collin County right now and you're willing to commute an hour to Plano, Richardson, or Dallas during rush hour. Plan to stay five or more years if buying in early phases. Median sales price is $478,000, down 15% from the year before.
• Choose Plano if you can afford it, but know that buyers priced out move to Frisco, then McKinney, then Celina. Plano is completely built out.
• Choose Melissa or Anna if you're being priced out of closer suburbs and you're willing to trade commute time for a lower price.

The tax rate, the school boundary lines, and the resale picture are all different depending on what town or city you end up in. McKinney is not Celina, and Celina is not Prosper. Pick the wrong one for your budget or your timeline and you end up paying thousands of dollars or more in taxes a year, or you end up being stuck in that home because you can't sell it a few years down the road.

What Buyers Need to Know Right Now

Before you come out here and write an offer, get the tax rate on that exact address, not the city or the town that you're looking in. Once you get that tax rate, make sure you also confirm if there's a MUD or PID tax district as well. Do that math into your monthly budget before you have to pay thousands of dollars a year for the entire time you own that home. The difference between a 1.4% tax rate and a 2.3% tax rate on a $500,000 home is thousands of dollars a year that you have to budget for. That number alone is gonna help you decide if you love the home or you're gonna resent it years later.

One thing though, I do want to mention before you call that sales rep at that community you like, talk to me first because once you do so, they're going to register you in their own community. Once they do so, you have lost a majority of all your negotiation power. Then I can't represent you and help you negotiate the price, the terms, the incentives, and all those buydowns that you can get right now on that spec home that you like online.

Don't let the price cuts convince you that everything out here is absolutely negotiable, because in certain micro markets here, it isn't negotiable. A well-priced home in an established neighborhood like McKinney or Prosper typically does well. If you show up with a lowball offer in one of these established communities, there's a good chance you're gonna miss out on that property to another offer.

What Sellers Need to Know Right Now

If you're planning on selling and your number is based on what your neighbor purchased at 2022, you're probably going to be completely off. In Frisco today alone, 31% of the Frisco listings have had a price reduction. That's almost one in every three homes having reductions right now. A price cut does not mean there's anything wrong with your home anymore. It's just what happens when people price their homes at yesterday's price. And what I mean by yesterday's price, 2022 prices.

According to the Frisco data, correctly priced homes sell within 38 days. Price wrong and trying to obtain a different number, those homes are sitting for over 100 days. This is the whole game here in North Texas. It's not that your home has anything wrong with it, but price it incorrectly and there's a good chance you have holding costs ahead of you and over 100 days on market. So testing a price right now, it's just not the time for it.

You price it high, your property goes stale, buyers assume there's something wrong with the property, and you end up selling for far less than what you should have priced it at from the get-go. Price it to what it should close today, not to what you think it's worth.

Your Competition Is the Builder

The biggest reality of selling your home in North Texas is your competition is not your neighbor. Your competition is the builder. Collin County inventory is up 62% above its average. Active listings countywide are at 12,000 listings, up over 8% year over year. In Celina, builders have sold 61% more homes at a 22% discount.

A builder can do a lot right now. They can slash prices, they can give crazy incentives, they can buy down an interest rate to what you can't get in today's market. They're probably going to throw in a refrigerator, washer, dryer, blinds. It's something you just can't do as a seller.

But you can compete on two things a builder cannot give a buyer: the condition and the finished neighborhood. You have mature trees in your neighborhood, your yard is fully grown in, and you don't have new construction dump trucks coming in at 6:30 in the morning every single day. If you live in an established neighborhood, you have the upper hand than a seller trying to sell their home in a new build community.

You still have to be smart right now. I'm not telling you that you need to completely remodel your home. You need to do the smart things. Paint, minor landscaping, and minor repairs around the home go a long way in this market right now. This isn't 2021 or 2022. You can't just put a sign up and expect 15 offers in the first day. the buyer is still going to compare your home to a new build because they're just going to go in there and get the incentives that they can get.

The First Two Weeks Matter Most

The market is not dead because the numbers tell us otherwise. Zillow has McKinney homes going pending in roughly 38 days, Prosper homes in roughly 18 days. Those are not dead numbers, they're just normal numbers. Sellers overpricing are getting punished right now. There's a big difference between both of those.

When you're planning on selling your home, think about this. The first two weeks matter the most, especially when buyers are set up on a search with their realtor or on their own on a third-party site and they have your neighborhood on their own search. They see that home for the very first time online. It pops up on those sites as a new listing and you only get that window once. If you price it wrong, and what I mean by wrong is too high in the first 14 days, you're most likely going to burn that opportunity and lose all those buyers. Make sure you go into those 14 days with recent home sales in your neighborhood, not the ones from 2022.

I'll be transparent though, sellers should be aware that buyers are most likely going to be asking for closing cost concessions. Rates are high right now, things are expensive, so make sure you budget that into your overall seller net sheet. But also consider this: whatever you don't make on the sale of your home, if you purchase your next home, there's a good opportunity you're going to make that back because that house you're going to be moving into is most likely down 6%, 8%, or even 20% from the year before. Once you compare both sides between selling and buying, it usually gets a lot easier to make a decision.

Conclusion

Those are the five reasons people are leaving North Texas right now. None of those mentioned anything about hating Texas. It truly comes down to the taxes the buyers did not budget for, the commute time they did not drive prior to purchasing that home, and the home they purchased at the wrong place at the wrong time. Get those wrong and you're either writing a check at closing just to step away from that home you purchased two years ago, or you're sitting on a listing for over 100 days because you didn't price that property correctly in the first place.

If you're planning on moving here to North Texas or already live in Texas and planning on making the move here, I'm happy to have a conversation. I relocated my entire family here to North Texas, and now I help people relocate as well. I run the actual monthly numbers for buyers on a daily basis. I walk buyers through the tax rates, the school boundary plans, the commute times, and the resale picture before they write an offer. I do this for clients every single day.

Schedule a free 20 to 30 minute call with me. Let's find out if this is the right time for you or if you need to hold off until next spring. I'll run the numbers on the exact address you're looking at, and we'll figure out if that location is the right spot for you.